LightView AI Stock Analysis Summary
Nov 11, Issued 2026 (Wed) · As of Nov 10, 2026 close · 1/2Nebius Nebius Group N.V. · NBIS · NASDAQ
Q2 revenue rose 454.0% year over year, but a quarterly free cash flow of −$3.41B and $142.2M of net insider selling weigh on the stock ahead of the Nov 12 earnings report
Overall VerdictSELLBull 1 · Bear 4 · Deferred 1
Price at Issue
$134.00
Nov 10, 2026 close · −5.3%
External Average Target Price
$278.05
+107.5% · 20 analysts
52-Week Low · High
$73.52 ~ $299.86
vs. high −55.3%
Next Earnings
Nov 12
Q3 2026 earnings
014 Key Data Points
Quarterly free cash flow −$3.41BQ2 · capex $5.66B vs operating cash flow $2.25B · cash $8.04B
Net insider selling of $142.2M in 60 daysCOO sold $117.8M on Oct 5 · stock compensation is 13.9% of revenue
Q2 revenue +454.0%, ARR $3B$582.3M · year-end ARR target of $7–9B reaffirmed (per reports)
Two target cuts (Oct 21, Nov 4)Piper 237→185 · Citi 324→265 · $278.05 average is 107.5% above the close
02Research Team Debate — 6 Issues
| Q3 earnings (Nov 12)×2 | 보류 | This event has not happened yet, so the ruling is on hold. The Nov 12 report will show Q3 revenue, ARR growth and whether the year-end target stands, and the ruling reopens on that result. |
| Funding | Bear | Operating cash flow includes customer prepayments (H1 deferred revenue up $4.395B, 6-K) and the 2026 capex plan is over 2.5 times cash, so more funding is needed; ruling Bear. |
| Insider selling | Bear | Net selling of $142.2M is above the $10M threshold and stock compensation at 13.9% of revenue is above the 10% threshold, so ruling Bear. The director's $255K of buying is about 0.2% of the selling. |
| Valuation | Bear | P/S of 26.9x divided by 454.0% growth is 0.06, above CoreWeave's 0.03 and 3.1 times the peer median P/S, so the stock is expensive for its growth; ruling Bear. |
| CoreWeave read-through | Bull | The question is whether the sector good news reaches NBIS; a rival serving the same demand reporting a backlog and demand above capacity is also supportive for NBIS, so ruling Bull. The premarket move is not yet in the close. |
| Target cuts | Bear | Targets are judged by the direction of recent changes. Since Oct 21 there are two cuts (−21.9%, −18.2%) and no raises, so ruling Bear despite the high average. |
The overall ruling is SELL. Revenue growth and sector demand are real, but funding, executive selling, valuation and target cuts weighed more; the ruling reopens if the Nov 12 Q3 report confirms ARR and guidance.
03Conditions That Change the Verdict
▲ Upgrade Conditions
- Nov 12 Q3 earningsRevenue at or above the $907M consensus with the $7–9B year-end ARR target reaffirmed
- Funding planCapex funding is announced without a large equity issue
- Reclaiming the 20-day averageA close above the 20-day average of $158.16
▼ Downgrade Conditions
- Nov 12 Q3 earningsRevenue below the $907M consensus or a lower year-end ARR target
- Support breakA close below the Nov 5 close of $120.37 (lower Bollinger band $120.93)
- More target cutsThe average target falls below $250 or a major broker moves to Sell
LightView AI Stock Analysis Summary
Nov 11, Issued 2026 (Wed) · As of Nov 10, 2026 close · 2/204Quarterly Results Unit: $B
| Q2 2025 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 2026 | Q2 |
|---|
| Revenue | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Operating Income | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Net Income | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.6 | -0.2 |
| Operating Margin | -105.8% | -89.1% | -109.8% | -32.1% | -30.2% |
Operating margin−30.2%Year ago −105.8%
Net margin−32.7%Year ago +556.0%
Operating cash flow margin+385.7%Year ago −163.3%
Free cash flow margin−585.8%Year ago −649.1%
06Street Opinions
Buy 15Hold 6Sell 1Avg $278.05 · High $410.00 · Low $84.00
Citigroup265Target cut
Piper Sandler185Target cut
Rosenblatt304Initiated at Buy
BNP Paribas399Target raised
07Financial Strength
Cash and short-term investments (6/30)$8.04B$1.68B → +378.9%
Total debt (6/30)$10.17B$1.22B → +730.8%
Equity (6/30)$10.34B$3.78B → +173.9%
Shares outstanding (6/30)271.9M shares239.8M shares → +13.4%
08Recent News
- 11/11 NBIS reported up more than 11% premarket after CoreWeave resultsStocktwits and IBD headlines (backlog $132B, demand above capacity) · after the close, not in the price; figures below are the Nov 10 close
- 11/5 Down 14.9% in one day to $120.37, the lowest close since mid-AugustYahoo quotes · IREN also fell 17.0% that day · volume was 1.9 times the 20-day average
- 11/4 Citigroup cuts target to $265 from $324, keeps BuyYahoo price targets, Nov 4
09Upcoming Events
- Nov 12 (Thu) · Q3 2026 earnings (Yahoo schedule)Consensus revenue $907M · EPS −$0.63 · ARR and guidance in focus
- Nov 13 (Fri) · Weekly options expiryMax pain $142 · put/call open interest 0.61
- Nov 20 (Fri) · Options expiryMax pain $175 · put/call open interest 0.95
10Key Risks
- Funding capex (free cash flow −$3.41B vs cash $8.04B)Impact High · Likelihood High · Watch Nov 12 earnings
- Missing the $7–9B year-end ARR targetImpact High · Likelihood High · Watch Nov 12 earnings
- Reliance on customer advances (H1 deferred revenue +$4.395B) and delivery slipsImpact Medium · Likelihood High · Watch Next quarterly report
11Checkpoints
- ★★★ Nov 12 Q3 earningsWatch whether revenue reaches the $907M consensus and whether the $7–9B year-end ARR target holds.
- ★★★ Capex fundingWatch for new debt or equity. Cash is $8.04B and quarterly free cash flow is −$3.41B.
- ★★☆ New capacity start-up scheduleIf new capacity starts on schedule from late Q4, worries about the year-end ARR target ease.