NebiusNebius Group N.V. · NBIS
The $134.00 close is 55.3% below the 52-week high of $299.86, and the debate ruled SELL 4 to 1 on funding, insider selling, valuation and target cuts
Q2 revenue rose 454.0% year over year, but a quarterly free cash flow of −$3.41B and $142.2M of net insider selling weigh on the stock ahead of the Nov 12 earnings report. Two brokers have cut targets since Oct 21 (Piper Sandler, Citigroup) with no raises, and the year-end $7–9B ARR target will be tested in the Q3 report
Research team debate
Of six issues, the CoreWeave read-through went to Bull; funding, insider selling, valuation and target cuts went to Bear; the Nov 12 earnings call was put on hold, giving SELL
The overall ruling is SELL. Revenue growth and sector demand are real, but funding, executive selling, valuation and target cuts weighed more; the ruling reopens if the Nov 12 Q3 report confirms ARR and guidance.
- Bull case — Q2 revenue +454.0%, ARR of $3B, cash of $8.04B and the sector demand shown by CoreWeave's results support growth hopes.
- Bear case — free cash flow of −$3.41B, debt of $10.17B, net selling of $142.2M, a 26.9x P/S and two target cuts weigh on the stock.
- Hold — the ruling reopens when the Nov 12 Q3 report gives ARR, guidance and the capex plan.
1aDebate by Issue · 6
The target is still valid. Q2 revenue of $582.3M was up 454.0% from a year earlier and ARR was $3B, and the company kept its year-end ARR guidance of $7–9B and 2026 revenue guidance of $3.0–3.4B (per reports). Q3 consensus revenue of $907M is 55.8% above Q2.
The target is far away. ARR must rise from $3B in June to $7–9B by year-end, 2.3–3.0 times in six months, and new capacity is reported to start only in late Q4 (per reports). Customer advances already sit in deferred revenue, so a slip in delivery would move the number.
Back-loaded delivery is normal for build-outs. Deferred revenue from customer advances rose $4.395B in the first half, showing customers have paid ahead (6-K).
This event has not happened yet, so the ruling is on hold. The Nov 12 report will show Q3 revenue, ARR growth and whether the year-end target stands, and the ruling reopens on that result.[S2·S8]
Funding capacity has grown. Cash and short-term investments were $8.04B on June 30, up 378.9% in a year, and equity was $10.34B. Deferred revenue from customer advances rose $4.395B in the first half (6-K).
Spending exceeds cash. Q2 capex of $5.66B against operating cash flow of $2.25B left free cash flow at −$3.41B, and the $20–25B annual capex guidance (per reports) is 2.5–3.1 times cash on hand. Total debt of $10.17B is up 104.5% in six months.
Operating cash flow includes customer prepayments (H1 deferred revenue up $4.395B, 6-K) and the 2026 capex plan is over 2.5 times cash, so more funding is needed; ruling Bear.[S2·S8]
The meaning is limited. Director Arne Grimme bought about $255K in four purchases between Oct 19 and Oct 28, and the big sales came in early October around $230, far from today's $134.00. Selling does not by itself mean the business is worsening.
Executives sold heavily at high prices. Net selling over 60 days was $142.2M, 0.39% of market cap; COO Ophir Nave sold 500,000 shares ($117.8M) on Oct 5 and CEO Arkady Volozh sold 37,778 shares ($8.85M) on Oct 1. Stock compensation was $188.9M over four quarters, 13.9% of revenue.
Net selling of $142.2M is above the $10M threshold and stock compensation at 13.9% of revenue is above the 10% threshold, so ruling Bear. The director's $255K of buying is about 0.2% of the selling.[S6·S2]
Growth explains the price. A 26.9x P/S is high, but Q2 revenue grew 454.0% and 2026 guidance of $3.0–3.4B is 5.7–6.4 times last year's $529.8M (per reports). P/S divided by growth is about 0.06.
It is still dearer than peers on the same test. CoreWeave's 3.5x P/S divided by 112% Q2 growth is 0.03, while Nebius's 26.9x divided by 454.0% is 0.06. In absolute terms it is 3.1 times the 8.7x peer median, and TTM and forward P/E are both negative.
P/S of 26.9x divided by 454.0% growth is 0.06, above CoreWeave's 0.03 and 3.1 times the peer median P/S, so the stock is expensive for its growth; ruling Bear.[S1·S7]
Sector demand was confirmed. Nov 11 headlines on CoreWeave's results cited a $132B backlog and demand above capacity, and NBIS was reported up more than 11% premarket (headlines; after the close, not in the price). The $134.00 close is 55.3% below the 52-week high.
Whether the bounce lasts is a separate question. Every one of the 11 sessions since Oct 27 moved more than 5%, including −14.9% on Nov 5. At 26.9x P/S versus CoreWeave's 3.5x, expectations for NBIS are much higher, so the sector news may not carry the same weight.
The question is whether the sector good news reaches NBIS; a rival serving the same demand reporting a backlog and demand above capacity is also supportive for NBIS, so ruling Bull. The premarket move is not yet in the close.[S8]
Targets remain high after the cuts. The 20-analyst Yahoo average of $278.05 is 107.5% above the close, and 15 of 22 ratings are Buy against one Sell. Citigroup kept its Buy while lowering the target to $265 from $324.
The recent direction of targets is down. Piper Sandler cut to $185 from $237 (Neutral) on Oct 21 and Citigroup to $265 from $324 on Nov 4, with no raises in between. Of Yahoo's five changes, the only raise was BNP Paribas on Sep 24.
Targets are judged by the direction of recent changes. Since Oct 21 there are two cuts (−21.9%, −18.2%) and no raises, so ruling Bear despite the high average.[S4]
1bScenarios
LightView does not issue its own target price. The high, average and low of external target prices are used as price references for scenarios[S4]
Highest target $410 · assumes the year-end ARR goal is met and funding stays open
Average target $278.05 · assumes the ARR plan stays on schedule
Lowest target $84 · assumes delays and tighter funding
1cConditions That Change the Verdict
The verdict is based only on the data in this report and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Investment Summary
Q2 revenue of $582.3M is up 454.0% from a year earlier and the operating margin improved to −30.2%, but free cash flow was −$3.41B
High$299.86
2aKey Data
Revenue up 454.0% and the ARR target support growth hopes, but free cash flow, debt, insider selling and target cuts weigh ahead of the Nov 12 earnings report
2bKey Metrics
Financials are for Q2 2026 (ended 6/30). Total debt of $10.17B less cash and short-term investments of $8.04B gives net debt of $2.13B; the August convertible note sale (reported at $5.0B–$5.75B depending on the source) is not included
Business & Competitive Advantage
AI cloud is the core business, and deferred revenue from customer advance payments rose $4.395B in the first half (company 6-K)
3aBusiness Structure
ARR of $3B at end-June · Q2 revenue $582.3M
Q2 capex $5.66B · 2026 guidance $20–25B (per reports)
Deferred revenue from customer advances +$4.395B in H1 (6-K)
Reported separately from AI cloud in company filings
- Growth driver · ARR of $3B with a year-end target of $7–9B · Q3 consensus revenue $907M
- Funding · Cash of $8.04B and debt of $10.17B against a $20–25B 2026 capex plan (per reports)
- Customer advances · Deferred revenue from customer advances rose $4.395B in H1 (6-K) · delays in delivery would hit cash flow
- Sector · Neocloud stocks rallied after CoreWeave's results on Nov 11, per reports
3bCompetitive Advantage (Moat) Assessment
Six sources rated Strong·Medium·Weak
Revenue grew 454.0% but the operating margin is −30.2%
Large Microsoft and Meta contracts, with H1 deferred revenue from advances up $4.395B
Operating loss margin improved from −105.8% to −30.2% in a year
Quarterly free cash outflow of $3.41B is 42.4% of $8.04B cash
Expanding in Finland and the UK, but start-ups cluster after Q4
The year-end ARR target needs a 2.3–3.0x rise in six months
AI cloud demand and long-term contracts are strong, but funding capacity and customer concentration limit the cushion
Earnings & Financials
Quarterly revenue went from $105.1M to $582.3M in a year, but capex of $5.66B far exceeded operating cash flow of $2.25B
4aRevenue & Earnings
| Q2 2025 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 2026 | Q2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 105M | 146M | 228M | 399M | 582M |
| Operating Income | −111M | −130M | −250M | −128M | −176M |
| Net Income | 584M | −120M | −269M | 621M | −190M |
| Operating Margin | -105.8% | -89.1% | -109.8% | -32.1% | -30.2% |
The operating margin moved −105.8% → −89.1% → −109.8% → −32.1% → −30.2%; net income of $584.4M in Q2 2025 and $621.2M in Q1 2026 includes non-operating items and should be read separately from the core business
4bCash Flow
| Annual (FY ends December) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 697M | 830M | 246M | 385M |
| Capex | 15M | 83M | 807M | 4.1B |
| Free Cash Flow | +682M | +747M | −562M | −3.7B |
4cFinancial Structure
| Item | Now | Jun 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments (6/30) | $8.04B | $1.68B | +378.9% |
| Total debt (6/30) | $10.17B | $1.22B | +730.8% |
| Equity (6/30) | $10.34B | $3.78B | +173.9% |
| Shares outstanding (6/30) | 271.9M shares | 239.8M shares | +13.4% |
4dProfitability Metrics
| Metric | Q2 | Year ago | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating margin | −30.2% | −105.8% | Operating income ÷ revenue |
| Net margin | −32.7% | +556.0% | Net income ÷ revenue |
| Operating cash flow margin | +385.7% | −163.3% | Operating cash flow ÷ revenue |
| Free cash flow margin | −585.8% | −649.1% | (Operating cash flow − capex) ÷ revenue |
Valuation
A P/S of 26.9x is 3.1 times the peer median of 8.7x, and both TTM and forward P/E are negative, so the multiple is demanding against growth
5aP/S trend
The sum of the last four quarters of diluted EPS (−$0.50, −$0.99, +$2.11, −$0.68) is −$0.06, so this report shows TTM P/E as a loss (Yahoo displays TTM EPS of $1.28 and a TTM P/E of 104.7x; the difference is the summing basis). The end-2025 P/E was 208.2x ($83.71 close ÷ $0.40 diluted EPS) and end-2024 was a loss, so no P/E applies. The table below is P/S, not P/E; next-12-month EPS is −$5.59, so there is no forward P/E either. The basis is P/S (market cap ÷ trailing four-quarter revenue).
The $134.00 close on Nov 10 equals 26.9x trailing four-quarter revenue of $1.355B. TTM and forward P/E are not computed because of losses, and the P/S is 3.1 times the peer median of 8.7x.
5bPrice Range · 52-Week vs. External Targets
52-week range is intraday (low 2/5 · high 6/22) · External price targets: Yahoo Finance, 20 analysts (Buy 15·Hold 6·Sell 1)[S4]
5cPeer Multiples Comparison
| Company | PER (TTM) | Forward PER | P/S | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebius NBIS | Loss | Loss | 26.9x | $36.4B |
| CoreWeave CRWV | Loss | Loss | 3.5x | $26.9B |
| IREN IREN | Loss | Loss | 11.6x | $8.0B |
| Applied Digital APLD | Loss | Loss | 5.8x | $5.0B |
| Cipher Digital CIFR | Loss | 37.5x | 18.6x | $2.7B |
Nov 10 close · peer median P/S 8.7x (four companies), forward P/E 37.5x (one company with positive estimates) · losses excluded from P/E · Yahoo Finance[S7] · Peers are four dollar-denominated companies (CRWV, IREN, APLD, CIFR) from Yahoo Finance
Chart & Options
The $134.00 close is below the 20-, 60-, 120- and 200-day averages and above the 5-day average, with RSI at 37.3
6aKey Price Levels Above and Below Current Price
Each colored bar matches the same-colored line on the chart; the percentage is the distance from the current price (green above · red below)
6bTechnical Indicators
6cOptions Market
Yahoo options at collection time · call share of volume 58.7% · max pain $142 for Nov 13 and $175 for Nov 20
News & Schedule
The stock moved −14.9% on Nov 5, +9.2% on Nov 9 and −5.3% on Nov 10, and a Nov 11 report said it was up more than 11% premarket after CoreWeave's results
7aNews
11/11 Volume 20.3M shares
11/5 Volume 48.3M shares
11/4 Volume 23.0M shares
10/21 Volume 19.7M shares
10/8 Volume 22.0M shares
10/5 Volume 15.1M shares
7bUpcoming Events
Macro
The US 10-year yield rose to 4.98%, a burden on funding costs for a company with $10.17B of debt and a large annual capex plan
Wall Street View
The 20-analyst average target of $278.05 is 107.5% above the close, but there have been two cuts and no raises since Oct 21
9aExternal Target Price Range
9bRecent Opinions by Firm
| Institutions | Opinion | Previous | Target Price | Change | vs. Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Buy | 324 | 265 | Target cut | +97.8% |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | 237 | 185 | Target cut | +38.1% |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | New | 304 | Initiated at Buy | +126.9% |
| BNP Paribas | Buy | 260 | 399 | Target raised | +197.8% |
Yahoo Finance: 20 analysts · average target $278.05 (high 410, low 84) · 22 ratings: 15 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell · five changes (William Blair's Sep 30 Buy initiation has no published target)[S4]
Risk Analysis
The two biggest risks are funding the capex plan and reaching the year-end $7–9B ARR target
| Risk | Type | Likelihood | Impact | Dates to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funding capex (free cash flow −$3.41B vs cash $8.04B) | Financial | High | High | Nov 12 earnings |
| Missing the $7–9B year-end ARR target | Earnings | High | High | Nov 12 earnings |
| Reliance on customer advances (H1 deferred revenue +$4.395B) and delivery slips | Earnings | Medium | High | Next quarterly report |
| Large executive selling and stock compensation (13.9% of revenue) | Financial | Medium | Medium | Next Form 4 filings |
| Volatility: 55.3% below the 52-week high, 11 straight sessions with moves above 5% | Price | High | Medium | Nov 13 and 20 expiries |
| Share count +13.4% in one year | Financial | Medium | Medium | Next quarterly report |
Likelihood and impact rated High·Medium·Low · When it clears: Resolves with: Nov 12 Q3 earnings · Nov 13 and Nov 20 options expiries · whether year-end ARR reaches $7–9B
Checkpoints & Open Questions
The two key checks are ARR and guidance in the Nov 12 Q3 report and the plan to fund capex
11aCheckpoints
11bOpen Questions
Sources & Data Dates
Numbers without a source are not published.
| ID | Type | Provider | Content | As-of Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Price and indicators | Yahoo Finance | Closes, moving averages, RSI, 52-week range, Supertrend, Bollinger bands | 2026.11.11 |
| S2 | Financials | Yahoo Finance quarterly and annual statements (through Q2 2026) | Quarterly revenue, income, cash flow, balance sheet and share count | 2026.11.11 |
| S3 | SEC filings | SEC EDGAR 6-K Aug 12, 2026 results report https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094844/nbis-20260812xex99d1.htm | Confirmed H1 deferred revenue +$4.395B (customer advances), capex $8.13B and revenue $981M. Oct 1 and Oct 22 6-Ks not opened | 2026.11.11 |
| S4 | Targets and consensus | Yahoo Finance | Rating mix, price targets, five changes | 2026.11.11 |
| S5 | Options | Yahoo Finance | Put/call ratio, volume by strike, max pain | 2026.11.11 |
| S6 | Insider trades | Yahoo Finance (Form 4 summary) | 15 trades in 60 days: $142.46M sold, $255K bought | 2026.11.11 |
| S7 | Peer comparison | Yahoo Finance | P/S and P/E of CRWV, IREN, APLD and CIFR | 2026.11.11 |
| S8 | News and reports | Company 6-K (Aug 12 results), Stocktwits and IBD (headlines), 24/7 Wall St. (Nov 5), search summaries | CoreWeave read-through; interest expense and share sales; reports on guidance and capex | 2026.11.11 |
Price: Nov 10, 2026 close (last completed) · Financials: Q2 2026 (Yahoo Finance) · Next earnings: Nov 12 per Yahoo · Nov 11 premarket reports are not in the price
※ Based on research team debate tally · of six issues: Bull 1 (CoreWeave read-through), Bear 4 (funding, executive selling, valuation, target cuts), hold 1 (Nov 12 earnings, the 2-vote core issue counts as 0). Fewer than two holds, so no add-on; a 3-vote gap gives SELL