SK hynixSK hynix Inc. · 000660
Earnings, shareholder returns and a low multiple are positives, while regulation worries and a low-volume rebound are drags, so the call is HOLD, to be reopened by the Q3 quarterly report in mid-November
After the KOSPI fell 6.02% on Nov 6 and pushed the stock to a ₩1,132,000 close, two straight rebound days lifted it back to ₩1,277,000, still 57.2% below the 52-week high, with forward P/E at 2.5x. Q3 operating profit of ₩83.3T (preliminary) and the low multiple are unchanged, while U.S. data-center regulation worries and ₩2.8T of foreign net selling created a flow shock whose end is not yet clear
Research team debate
Of six issues, the Nov 6 selloff cause, shareholder returns and valuation go to Bull, and regulation worries, rebound volume and price trend go to Bear, a weighted 4 to 3, so HOLD.
The overall call is HOLD: earnings, shareholder returns and a low multiple favor Bull, while regulation worries, a low-volume rebound and a broken price trend favor Bear, and the call reopens with the mid-November Q3 quarterly report and concrete U.S. rules.
- Bull case: the Nov 6 drop was a market shock with KOSPI −6.02% and Samsung Electronics −6.30%, while Q3 operating income of ₩83.3T, forward P/E of 2.5x and net cash of ₩98.7T are unchanged.
- Bear case: regulation worries persist without concrete rules, rebound volume on Nov 10–11 fell short of the 4M-share 20-day average, and the close is below the 20-, 60-, 120- and 200-day lines.
- Hold: no issue was held. The call changes when the mid-November Q3 quarterly report confirms operating cash flow and rebound volume exceeds the 20-day average.
1aDebate by Issue · 6
This selloff is not a company problem. The KOSPI fell 6.02%, Samsung Electronics 6.30% and the KOSDAQ 5.03%, and foreigners sold ₩2.8T on the KOSPI. SK hynix's 10.44% drop that day was a market flow shock, and the Q3 operating income of ₩83.3T released nine days earlier has not changed.
The price fell regardless of company news. SK hynix fell about 1.7x as much as the KOSPI, and dropped 25.8% from the Oct 29 close of ₩1,526,000 to ₩1,132,000 on Nov 6. It reacts more strongly to market shocks, and the same volatility can recur in the next drop.
A big drop shows market sensitivity, not lower company value. The 80% operating margin and ₩98.7T net cash did not change over the period, and the Nov 11 close recovered 12.8% from the low.
The issue is whether the cause lies with the company, and with the KOSPI −6.02% and Samsung Electronics −6.30% falling together, the call goes to Bull because the cause is market-wide. Bear's volatility point is a risk but not evidence of damaged company value.[S1·S5]
Demand is tied up in contracts. Five-year contracts with 14 major customers already secure more than 50% of 2027–2028 capacity. Even if rules materialize, the price and term of that volume do not change immediately.
Contracts do not stop worries from showing up in the price. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell more than 12% in a day and a call to halt construction appeared, yet with no concrete plan the scope cannot be gauged. Contract volume can also slip if customers delay data-center builds.
The issue is whether regulation worries shake the demand premise, and while contracts protect the floor, the call goes to Bear because the lack of concrete rules leaves uncertainty unresolved. It will be reassessed when the outline of any legislation appears.[S3·S5]
Shareholder returns have actually grown. The Q3 dividend is ₩20,000 per share, about ₩14T in total, with a Nov 30 record date. Adding the ₩20T buyback gives about ₩34T, or 3.7% of the ~₩908T market cap.
Not all of it is cancellation. Part of the ₩20T may go to employee compensation, and ₩10,000 of the dividend comes from Kioxia investment gains that will not repeat. The execution schedule has not been disclosed either.
The issue is whether returns support the price floor, and the call goes to Bull because even the regular ₩10,000 dividend alone implies a payout capacity in the tens of trillions, backed by ₩98.7T of net cash. Execution pace must be checked in filings.[S3·S6]
It is very cheap relative to earnings growth. Estimated EPS rises 49.0% from ₩360,656 this year to ₩537,542 next year while forward P/E is 2.5x, a PEG of about 0.05. The peer forward median is 14.8x.
A low multiple may mean the market doubts earnings are sustainable. Q3 net income fell 58% from Q2 and non-operating losses were ₩32.6T, so the net income path looks unstable. Memory earnings can drop quickly when the cycle turns.
The issue is whether the low multiple is justified, and the call goes to Bull because operating income grew 38% and expected EPS growth is 49.0%, making the multiple low relative to growth. The net income drop stems from FX and valuation losses, separate from operating results.[S2·S3·S4·S7]
The rebound is large. Gains of 6.69% on Nov 10 and 5.36% on Nov 11 lifted the stock 12.8% above the ₩1,132,000 low and above the 5-day line at ₩1,204,200. It signals that some of the stock sold in the plunge has been recovered.
The rebound lacks force. Volumes of 3.42M and 3.44M shares were 0.85x and 0.86x the 20-day average of 4.0M, and under half the 7.9M shares of the selloff day. Few buyers are showing up in the rebound.
The issue is whether the rebound reflects returning flows, and the call goes to Bear because a rebound on below-average volume is too early to trust. It will be reassessed if volume exceeds the average while the stock holds the 20-day line at ₩1,308,100.[S1]
A bottom signal is close. The ₩1,277,000 close is only 2.4% below the 20-day line at ₩1,308,100, and RSI at 43.1 is out of oversold territory.
The larger moving averages are all overhead. The stock needs to rise 18.6–23.6% to reach the 200-day line at ₩1,514,660 and the 60-day line at ₩1,577,800, and it sits 57.2% below the 52-week high. It has not even regained the 20-day line.
The issue is whether the price trend has bottomed, and the call goes to Bear because the 20-, 60- and 200-day lines are all overhead with no sign of a trend reversal. A close above the 20-day line would be the first confirmation.[S1]
1bScenarios
LightView does not issue its own target price. With no external target prices, the 52-week high, 200-day line and 52-week low are used as price references for scenarios
52-week high of ₩2,987,000 · if regulation worries ease and the Q3 quarterly report confirms cash flow
200-day line of ₩1,514,660 · if the stock regains the pre-selloff range of ₩1,487,000–₩1,526,000 (Oct 28–29 closes)
52-week low of ₩501,000 · if foreign selling and AI investment fears persist and sentiment turns
1cConditions That Change the Verdict
The verdict is based only on the data in this report and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Investment Summary
Q3 operating income is ₩83.3T (preliminary), but the ₩1,277,000 close is 57.2% below the 52-week high and 12.8% above the Nov 6 low.
High₩2,987,000
2aKey Data
Earnings, shareholder returns and a low multiple are positives; the aftershocks of the Nov 6 market-wide selloff and U.S. data-center regulation worries are negatives, so the durability of the rebound needs confirming
2bKey Metrics
Financials are through Q2 2026 (Jun 30 close) [S2]. Q3 is based on the company's Oct 28 preliminary results as reported, and the quarterly report is due in mid-November [S3].
Business & Competitive Advantage
A memory maker selling HBM, server DRAM and NAND, with more than 50% of 2027–2028 capacity under contract with 14 major customers.
3aBusiness Structure
HBM4 shipments ramped and server DDR5 grew, lifting Q3 DRAM shipments about 10% and average selling price in the high-20% range
Shipments dipped slightly, but 321-layer eSSD sales growth and a mid-20% price increase improved profitability
The contracts protect part of volume and price if demand softens; the company says the memory shortage will last through 2030
Larger payouts through dividends and cancellations help support the share price floor
- Record Q3 results · Revenue of ₩104.6T topped ₩100T for the first time, and operating income of ₩83.3T (80% margin) was a record for the sixth straight quarter.
- Rising HBM4 mix · In Q4 HBM4 is expected to exceed HBM3E in mix, with shipments targeted up in the mid-20% range for DRAM and mid-single digits for NAND.
- Bigger shareholder returns · The Q3 dividend is ₩20,000 per share (₩10,000 regular plus ₩10,000 special from Kioxia investment gains), and a further ₩20T buyback was approved.
- Solidigm IPO on hold · The company said the IPO of its U.S. NAND subsidiary Solidigm is on hold.
3bCompetitive Advantage (Moat) Assessment
Six sources rated Strong·Medium·Weak
The 80% Q3 operating margin reflects the pricing power of HBM and server DRAM.
Five-year contracts with 14 major customers already secure more than 50% of 2027–2028 capacity.
Quarterly revenue of ₩104.6T covers the burden of capex and R&D.
Cash and equivalents of ₩114.5T against ₩15.8T of borrowings leave net cash of ₩98.7T.
DRAM prices rose in the high-20% range in Q3, but pricing power could weaken if the shortage ends.
U.S. data-center regulation talks could affect the demand premise, adding uncertainty.
Long-term contracts and net cash underpin HBM and server DRAM demand, giving a strong business, but the share price swings widely with flows and industry sentiment
Earnings & Financials
After Q2 revenue of ₩79.3T and operating income of ₩60.5T, preliminary Q3 revenue is ₩104.6T and operating income ₩83.3T, with net income of ₩39.8T after non-operating losses.
4aRevenue & Earnings
| Q2 2025 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 2026 | Q2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.2 | 24.4 | 32.8 | 52.6 | 79.3 |
| Operating Income | 9.2 | 11.4 | 19.2 | 37.6 | 60.5 |
| Net Income | 7 | 12.6 | 15.2 | 40.3 | 93.8 |
| Operating Margin | 41.4% | 46.6% | 58.4% | 71.5% | 76.3% |
The five-quarter table below runs through Q2 2026 per Yahoo and DART, and Q3 is the company's Oct 28 preliminary figure. Operating margin rose 41.4% → 46.6% → 58.4% → 71.5% → 76.3% and reached 80% in Q3.
4bCash Flow
| Annual (FY ends Dec) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.8 | 4.3 | 29.8 | 53.4 |
| Capex | 19.8 | 8.8 | 16.7 | 28.6 |
| Free Cash Flow | −5 | −4.5 | +13.1 | +24.8 |
4cFinancial Structure
| Item | Now | Jun 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments (Jun 30) | ₩88T | ₩17.1T | +415.0% |
| Total debt (Jun 30, Yahoo basis) | ₩21.1T | ₩24.4T | −13.4% |
| Equity (Jun 30) | ₩262.4T | ₩87.1T | +201.1% |
| Shares outstanding (Jun 30) | 711M | 690M | +3.0% |
4dProfitability Metrics
| Metric | Q2 | 1 year ago | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating margin | 76.3% | 41.4% | Operating income ÷ revenue (Q2 2026) |
| Gross margin (Yahoo basis) | 83.2% | 53.9% | Gross profit ÷ revenue |
| Operating cash flow margin | 82.5% | 41.2% | Operating cash flow ÷ revenue |
| Free cash flow margin | 68.4% | 20.4% | (Operating cash flow − capex) ÷ revenue |
Valuation
TTM P/E of 5.6x and forward P/E of 2.5x are about one-sixth of the peer forward median of 14.8x.
5aP/E change
P/E = share price ÷ earnings per share (EPS). TTM uses EPS over the last four quarters through Q2 2026, and Forward uses estimated EPS for the next 12 months.
The Nov 11 close of ₩1,277,000 is 5.6x last-four-quarter EPS and 2.5x forward 12-month estimated EPS, against a peer forward median of 14.8x.
5bPrice Range · 52-Week
52-week range is intraday (low 25.11.26 · high 6/25) · No external price targets, so only the 52-week range is shown
5cPeer Multiples Comparison
| Company | PER (TTM) | Forward PER | P/S | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK hynix 000660 | 5.6x | 2.5x | 4.8x | ~₩908T |
| Samsung Electronics 005930 | 10.1x | 2.8x | 2.5x | ~₩1,193.3T |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics 009150 | 76.3x | 20.2x | 5.4x | ~₩67.1T |
| Hanmi Semiconductor 042700 | 67.9x | 42.5x | 31.7x | ~₩17.5T |
| DB HiTek 000990 | 12.0x | 9.5x | 2.7x | ~₩4.1T |
Nov 11 close · peer median TTM 40.0x, Forward 14.8x, P/S 4.1x[S7] · Peers are four same-currency (KRW) semiconductor and component companies
Chart & Options
The ₩1,277,000 close is above the 5-day line and below the 20-, 60-, 120- and 200-day lines, with RSI at 43.1.
6aKey Price Levels Above and Below Current Price
Each colored bar matches the same-colored line on the chart; the percentage is the distance from the current price (green above · red below)
6bTechnical Indicators
News & Schedule
After the KOSPI fell 6.02% on Nov 6, the stock rebounded for two straight days on Nov 10–11, and on Oct 28 record Q3 results plus a dividend and ₩20T buyback were announced.
7aNews
11/11 Volume 3.44M shares
11/6 Volume 7.91M shares
11/5 Volume 4.28M shares
10/30 Volume 3.86M shares
10/28 Volume 4.24M shares
7bUpcoming Events
Macro
The U.S. 10-year yield is 5.00%, WTI Dec futures are $86.53 and the VIX is 17.49.
Street Opinions
Fewer than three Korean brokers' individual targets were found, so none are shown; Yahoo shows an average of ₩3,100,999 from 39 analysts (40 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell).
Fewer than three Korean brokers' individual price targets were found, so no target is shown and peer comparison is used instead (Yahoo shows an average of ₩3,100,999 from 39 analysts, but individual firms are unverified).
9aPeer Comparison
| Company | PER (TTM) | Forward PER | P/S | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK hynix 000660 | 5.6x | 2.5x | 4.8x | ~₩908T |
| Samsung Electronics 005930 | 10.1x | 2.8x | 2.5x | ~₩1,193.3T |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics 009150 | 76.3x | 20.2x | 5.4x | ~₩67.1T |
| Hanmi Semiconductor 042700 | 67.9x | 42.5x | 31.7x | ~₩17.5T |
| DB HiTek 000990 | 12.0x | 9.5x | 2.7x | ~₩4.1T |
Nov 11 close · peer median TTM 40.0x, Forward 14.8x, P/S 4.1x[S7]
Risk Analysis
The biggest risks are tighter U.S. data-center regulation and resumed foreign selling, followed by larger non-operating losses.
| Risk | Type | Likelihood | Impact | Dates to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tighter U.S. data-center regulation (construction halt call) | Policy | High | High | Concrete rules and the Philadelphia semiconductor index |
| Resumed foreign selling (₩2.8T on Nov 6) | Flows | High | Medium | Foreign net trading on the KOSPI |
| Larger non-operating losses (₩32.6T in Q3) | Financial | Medium | Medium | Notes in the mid-November quarterly report |
| Worries about a memory price peak | Cycle | High | Low | DRAM and NAND prices, Q4 shipment targets |
| A low-volume rebound unwinding | Price | Medium | Medium | Whether volume exceeds 4M shares |
| A repeat index plunge (KOSPI 5,000) | Market | Medium | Medium | Whether the KOSPI breaks below the 5,059.69 close |
Likelihood and impact rated High·Medium·Low · When it clears: What resolves it: the mid-November Q3 quarterly report (non-operating loss detail, operating cash flow), concrete U.S. data-center regulation, and whether rebound volume exceeds the 20-day average
Checkpoints & Open Questions
The most important items are the mid-November Q3 quarterly report and a recovery of the 20-day line at ₩1,308,100 with volume.
11aCheckpoints
11bOpen Questions
Sources & Data Dates
Numbers without a source are not published.
| ID | Type | Provider | Content | As-of Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Prices and indicators | Yahoo Finance | Close, moving averages, RSI, 52-week high/low, Supertrend, Bollinger bands, volume · market cap is 711,075,500 shares × close | 2026.11.12 |
| S2 | Financials | Yahoo Finance quarterly and annual tables, DART business and quarterly reports | Quarterly revenue, profit, cash flow, balance sheet through Q2 2026, stock-based compensation (₩280.9B over the last 4 quarters) · quarter names follow the calendar | 2026.11.12 |
| S3 | Q3 preliminary results | Bizwatch (https://news.bizwatch.co.kr/article/industry/2026/10/28/0011/) | Revenue ₩104.6T, operating income ₩83.3T, net income ₩39.8T, non-operating losses ₩32.6T, cash ₩114.5T and borrowings ₩15.8T, dividend, buyback, long-term contracts | 2026.10.28 |
| S4 | Consensus | Yahoo Finance | Analyst rating distribution, price targets, estimated EPS (₩360,656 this year, ₩537,542 next year) | 2026.11.12 |
| S5 | Nov 6 market report | Financial News (https://fnnews.com/news/202611061559461085) | KOSPI 5,059.69 (−6.02%), circuit breaker, sell sidecar, ₩2.8T foreign net selling, U.S. data-center regulation worries | 2026.11.06 |
| S6 | DART filings | DART, Financial Supervisory Service (https://dart.fss.or.kr) | Titles of the Oct 28 dividend, buyback and preliminary earnings filings and the Oct 29 rumor-response filing · three ownership reports (titles only) | 2026.11.12 |
| S7 | Peer comparison | Yahoo Finance | P/E, P/S and market cap of Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Hanmi Semiconductor and DB HiTek | 2026.11.11 |
| S8 | Macro | Yahoo Finance | U.S. 10-year yield, WTI, USD/KRW, gold, bitcoin, VIX, KOSPI | 2026.11.11 |
Price at the Nov 11, 2026 close · financials through Q2 2026 (Yahoo Finance, DART) and Q3 preliminary results (Oct 28 reports) · Nov 6 market coverage from Financial News
※ Based on research team debate tally · of six issues, three go to Bull (the Nov 6 selloff cause is the key issue, w:2, so 2 votes; shareholder returns and valuation 1 each → 4 votes) and three to Bear (regulation worries, rebound volume and price trend, 1 each → 3 votes) · 0 holds → weighted Bull 4 vs. Bear 3, a one-vote gap, so HOLD