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MU · AI Stock Analysis ReportsUS · NASDAQSemiconductors · DRAM, NAND, HBM memoryRequested

MicronMicron Technology, Inc. · MU

Memory chipmaker (DRAM, NAND, HBM) whose earnings have surged on AI server demand, but fears of a cycle peak and reports of TSMC entering memory are weighing on the stock.

Q3 revenue rose 379% year over year at an 80.7% operating margin, yet the stock sits 41.6% below its June high as the market doubts earnings have peaked. After a 17.5% one-day drop on Nov 5, the stock rebounded 6.3% on Nov 9, and its 4.0x forward P/E is less than half the 10.3x peer median.

AI Opinion
BUY
As of 2026.11.10 issue
Price at Issue
$733.15
Nov 9, 2026 close · +6.3%
External Average Target Price
$1561.91
+113.0% · 45 analysts
External High Target Price
$3000.00
+309.2%
External Low Target Price
$361.00
−50.8%
Market cap
About $829.5B
Close (11/9)
$733.15
52-week range
$192.59–$1,255.00
P/E (TTM)
9.9x
Forward PER
4.0x
P/S
6.2x
Average price target
$1,561.91 (+113.0%)
Q4 2026 revenue guidance
$60B–$63B
01

Research team debate

On the key issue, the cycle-peak worry, Bull leads; valuation, cash and price targets also favor Bull, while the TSMC competition reports and the price trend favor Bear.

Manager’s VerdictBUYBull 5Bear 2Hold 0

The overall verdict is BUY. Results, valuation and cash favor Bull, while the price trend and TSMC competition risk favor Bear; the verdict reopens at the Dec 23 earnings, depending on whether gross margin holds above 86%.

  • Bull case — revenue +379%, 80.7% operating margin, $61.5B guidance midpoint, 4.0x forward P/E (PEG about 0.03) and $38.3B net cash are confirmed figures.
  • Bear case — the stock is 41.6% below its high and has not regained the 20-, 60- or 120-day averages, and the TSMC memory-entry reports remain unresolved.
  • No hold — the verdict could change at the Dec 23 earnings (Yahoo estimate) depending on whether gross margin stays near 86% and revenue within $60B–$63B, and on official TSMC and Micron comments.

The verdict is based only on the data in this report and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.

02

Investment Summary

Q3 revenue was $54.2B, up 379% year over year, at an 80.7% operating margin[S2]. Next-quarter revenue guidance is $60B–$63B[S7].

Financials Q3 2026 (ended Aug 31, company fiscal Q4) · price as of Nov 9 close

Close (11/9)
$733.15
Day +6.3%
External Avg Target vs. Current Price
+113.0%
Avg $1561.91 · 45 analysts
52-Week Low · High
Low$192.59
High$1255.00
Next Earnings
TBD
Q4 2026 earnings

2aKey Data

Quarterly revenue $54.2B, up 379% year over yearQ3 · operating income $43.8B (80.7% margin), 11.8x the $3.7B a year earlier[S2]
One-day drop of 17.5% on Nov 5, 41.6% below the highClose $656.39 on 2.5x average volume · AI chip selloff and reports of a delayed Taiwan fab[S3][S7]
Reports of TSMC entering advanced memory (Nov 10)24/7 Wall St. reported intent to enter while TIKR said TSMC stays in logic ICs, so reports conflict[S7]
Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $60B–$63BMidpoint is 13.4% above Q3's $54.2B · non-GAAP gross margin about 86%, which the company called the fiscal-year floor[S7]
President Scott DeBoer sold $25.7MOct 16 · 28,544 shares at $900–$902 · no executive buys in 60 days[S8]
Overall

Revenue up 379% and the next-quarter guidance support results, but the Nov 5 plunge, the TSMC competition reports and the President's sale weigh on the stock.

2bKey Metrics

Market cap
About $829.5B
Close (11/9)
$733.15 (+6.3%)
52-week high
$1,255.00 (6/25)
52-week low
$192.59 (25.11.21)
P/E (TTM)
9.9x
Forward PER
4.0x
P/S
6.2x
Average price target
$1,561.91
Q4 2026 revenue guidance
$60B–$63B
Employees
61,000 (Yahoo)

Financials are Yahoo figures for Q3 2026 (June–August, ended Aug 31)[S2]. Yahoo's $37.7B net income includes $0.6B of interest income, and the 86.8% gross margin is on Yahoo's basis, which differs from the company's 87.0% non-GAAP gross margin[S7].

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03

Business & Competitive Advantage

Micron makes DRAM, NAND and HBM memory for server, PC and smartphone customers; press reports attribute the year-over-year revenue jump to AI server demand and tight supply[S7].

US · NASDAQ MU · August fiscal year-end · 61,000 employees

3aBusiness Structure

DRAM
DRAM
Main memory for servers, PCs and smartphones

Company-wide quarterly revenue was $54.2B, 4.8x a year earlier; segment sales are in the company's filing tables[S2]

HBM
HBM
High-bandwidth memory attached to AI accelerators

Press reports cite AI server demand as the driver of revenue and the 80.7% operating margin[S7]

NAND
NAND and SSD
Flash memory that stores data

Fellow NAND maker Sandisk also trades at 3.5x forward P/E, so low multiples span the industry[S6]

Contracts
Customer agreements
Long-term supply deals that fix volumes in advance

Press reports cite 26 strategic customer agreements including take-or-pay terms; terms are not yet public[S7]

Recent Business Developments
  • Results · Q3 revenue $54.2B (+379%) · operating income $43.8B, 80.7% margin
  • Guidance · Q4 2026 revenue $60B–$63B · non-GAAP gross margin about 86% · EPS $38.15 ± $1.00
  • Investment · About $25B of capex planned for the first half · Q3 capex $11.1B
  • Outlook · Press reports describe an effort to improve revenue visibility through long-term customer contracts[S7]

3bCompetitive Advantage (Moat) Assessment

Six sources rated Strong·Medium·Weak

ProfitabilityStrong

An 80.7% operating margin and 86.8% gross margin (Yahoo basis) show the supply advantage in the numbers.

FinancesStrong

Net cash of $38.3B and debt down 64.5% give ample strength to ride out a downturn.

Customer dealsMedium

26 long-term deals including take-or-pay terms were reported, but terms are undisclosed.

Pricing powerMedium

Profit leans on sharply higher prices, so margins could revert if supply grows.

CompetitionMedium

Reports of TSMC entering advanced memory make the long-run competitive picture uncertain.

Production sitesMedium

Reports of a delayed Taoyuan, Taiwan fab mean the expansion schedule needs checking.

Overall · Moat Medium

Profitability and cash are strong, but the price cycle and possible TSMC competition put the moat at medium.

04

Earnings & Financials

Revenue grew from $11.3B to $54.2B over five quarters and operating margin rose from 32.6% to 80.7%[S2].

Last five quarters · unit: 100M USD · August fiscal year-end · quarters named by calendar · Yahoo basis

4aRevenue & Earnings

RevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeUnit: $B
Q3 2025Q4Q1 2026Q2Q311.33.73.213.66.15.223.916.113.841.533.328.254.243.837.7
Only the latest quarter (Q3 2026) is in a darker color[S2]
Quarterly revenue
$54.2B
+379.3% vs $11.3B a year earlier
Operating income
$43.8B
+1,084.7% vs $3.7B a year earlier
Net income
$37.7B
+1,077.8% vs $3.2B a year earlier
Q3 2025Q4Q1 2026Q2Q3
Revenue11.313.623.941.554.2
Operating Income3.76.116.133.343.8
Net Income3.25.213.828.237.7
Operating Margin32.6%45.0%67.6%80.4%80.7%
One-Line Take

Operating margin rose from 32.6% to 45.0%, 67.6%, 80.4% and 80.7%; the last two quarters are nearly flat, so margin expansion has stalled. Net income of $37.7B includes $0.6B of interest income[S2].

4bCash Flow

Operating Cash FlowCapexUnit: $B · M
+72MQ3 2025+3BQ4+5.5BQ1 2026+17.6BQ2+32.9BQ35.7B5.7B8.4B5.4B11.9B6.4B25.4B7.8B44B11.1B
Number below bar = free cash flow (operating cash flow − capex)
Annual (FY ends August)FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026
Operating Cash Flow1.68.517.589.7
Capex7.78.415.930.7
Free Cash Flow−6.1+121M+1.7+59

4cFinancial Structure

ItemNowAug 2025Change
Cash and short-term investments (8/31)$43.4B$10.3B+321.4%
Debt (8/31)$5.2B$14.6B−64.5%
Net cash (cash & investments − debt)$38.3B−$4.3B—
Shares outstanding (8/31)
1.13B
+0.8% vs 1.12B a year ago (Yahoo financials)[S2]
Stock-based compensation (TTM)
$1.33B
Yahoo basis, about 1.0% of revenue[S2]

4dProfitability Metrics

MetricQ3 2026Year earlierCalculation
Gross margin86.8%44.7%Gross profit ÷ revenue (Yahoo basis)
Operating margin80.7%32.6%Operating income ÷ revenue
Net margin69.5%28.3%Net income ÷ revenue
Operating cash flow margin81.1%50.6%Operating cash flow ÷ revenue
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05

Valuation

TTM P/E is 9.9x and forward P/E 4.0x, below the peer medians of 26.6x and 10.3x[S6].

LightView does not issue its own target price · price range is based on external firms’ target prices

5aP/E trend

137.5x
Aug 2024 P/E
Close $96.24 ÷ EPS $0.70
15.7x
Aug 2025 P/E
Close $119.01 ÷ EPS $7.59
12.9x
Aug 2026 P/E
Close $958.73 ÷ EPS $74.33
9.9x
Now (11/9) TTM P/E
Close $733.15 ÷ TTM EPS $74.21
4.0x
Now (11/9) forward P/E
Close $733.15 ÷ next-12-month estimated EPS $182.52
10.3x
Peer median forward P/E
Median of SNDK, WDC, STX, AMAT and LRCX (TTM P/E 26.6x)

P/E = price ÷ earnings per share (EPS). On TTM EPS of $74.21 it is 9.9x; on next-12-month estimated EPS of $182.52 it is 4.0x. Year-end P/E is the end-of-August close ÷ fiscal-year diluted EPS.

TTM PER · Forward PER

The Nov 9 close of $733.15 is 9.9x TTM EPS of $74.21 and 4.0x next-12-month estimated EPS of $182.52, against peer medians of 26.6x and 10.3x[S6].

5bPrice Range · 52-Week vs. External Targets

52-week range is intraday (low 25.11.21 · high 6/25) · External price targets: Yahoo Finance, 45 analysts (Buy 45·Hold 4·Sell 0)[S4]

5cPeer Multiples Comparison

CompanyPER (TTM)Forward PERP/SMarket Cap
Micron MU9.9x4.0x6.2x$829.2B
Sandisk SNDK7.1x3.5x4.4x$127.7B
Western Digital WDC11.2x9.5x7.5x$108.5B
Seagate STX26.6x10.3x8.4x$116.3B
Applied Materials AMAT31.9x20.0x9.5x$294.1B
Lam Research LRCX33.0x20.9x10.6x$277.0B

Nov 9 close · Yahoo Finance · peer median TTM P/E 26.6x, forward P/E 10.3x, P/S 8.4x[S6]

06

Chart & Options

The $733.15 close is below all five moving averages, including the 5-day ($745.97) and 200-day ($758.39), with RSI at 36.4[S3].

Aug 10 – Nov 9, 2026 daily closes · 5-, 20-, 60-, 120- and 200-day moving averages

41.6% below the 52-week highBelow all five moving averages · RSI 36.4
5D MA 745.97Lower Bollinger Band 697.6320D MA 866.21120D MA 954.52Current Price $733.1508-1009-1010-0911-09
Aug 10 – Nov 9 daily closes · moving averages are 5-, 20-, 60-, 120- and 200-day

6aKey Price Levels Above and Below Current Price

Each colored bar matches the same-colored line on the chart; the percentage is the distance from the current price (green above · red below)

Above Current Price
5D MA 745.97+1.7%
200D MA 758.39+3.4%
20D MA 866.21+18.1%
Supertrend 887.59+21.1%
120D MA 954.52+30.2%
60D MA 956.05+30.4%
Bollinger upper 1034.8+41.1%
Below Current Price
Lower Bollinger Band 697.63−4.8%

6bTechnical Indicators

RSI
36.4
30–50 · weak zone
MACD
−65.97
Below signal line (−45.20)
ADX
35.1
Strong trend · −DI 42.5 > +DI 13.1
07

News & Schedule

The main recent events are the 17.5% drop on Nov 5, the 6.3% rebound on Nov 9 and the President's $25.7M sale on Oct 16[S3][S8].

Per press reports · right side shows close, % change and volume on the news date

7aNews

11/9 Up 6.3% in a chip rebound after a week of AI chip sellingVolume was 1.03x the 20-day average · Nvidia fell about 4% the same day on the CEO probe report[S7]
+6.3%733.15USD
11/9 Volume 31.9M shares
11/5 Plunged 17.5% in a day amid an AI chip selloff and reports of a delayed Taiwan fabClose $656.39 on 2.5x average volume · the Taoyuan fab delay is per press reports and the company said operations were normal[S7]
-17.5%656.39USD
11/5 Volume 77.9M shares
10/16 President Scott DeBoer sold 28,544 shares for $25.7M$900–$902 per share · Yahoo Form 4 summary · the stock fell 5.6% that day[S8]
-5.6%878.84USD
10/16 Volume 30.5M shares

7bUpcoming Events

Nov 13 (Fri) Weekly options expiryMost-traded call strike $800 (28K contracts), put strike $650 (9K)[S5]
Nov 20 (Fri) Monthly options expiryThe two nearest expiries on Yahoo's list (Nov 11 and Nov 13) account for 46.4% of options volume[S5]
Dec 23 (Wed, TBD) Q4 2026 earningsNot confirmed by the company; Yahoo estimates Dec 23, to be compared with guidance ($60B–$63B revenue) and Yahoo consensus (EPS $38.29, revenue $61.8B)[S2][S7]
08

Macro

The 10-year yield is 4.86%, WTI December futures $86.9 and the VIX 19.92; volatility and oil both eased over the week[S9].

As of Nov 9 close · compared with Nov 2

10-year yield (11/9)
4.86%
−0.03pp vs 4.89% on 11/2
WTI Dec futures (11/9)
$86.9
−10.0% vs $96.5 on 11/2
USD/KRW (11/9)
₩1,362.7
+2.8% vs ₩1,325.5 on 11/2
Gold Dec futures (11/9)
$4,114.5
+3.7% vs $3,969.6 on 11/2
Bitcoin (11/9)
$75,223
−1.9% vs $76,677 on 11/2
VIX (11/9)
19.92
−5.8% vs 21.15 on 11/2
VIX 19.92, down 5.8% in a weekLower volatility revives risk appetite and leaves room for a rebound in heavily sold stocks
WTI December futures −10.0%Falling oil eases inflation and rate pressure, which can help growth stocks
10-year yield at 4.86%, a funding burden for heavy spendersHigh rates raise funding costs for memory makers expanding capacity and for their customers
AI chip stocks swing on Nvidia CEO probe reportOn Nov 9 Nvidia fell about 4% while Micron rose 6.3%, a split in sector sentiment
09

Wall Street View

Of 49 analysts, 45 rate Buy, 4 Hold and none Sell; the $1,561.91 average target is 113.0% above the close[S4].

Reproduced as published by external firms (opinions and target prices)

Analyst opinions 49 · distribution (Yahoo Finance)Buy 45 · Hold 4 · Sell 0

9aExternal Target Price Range

Avg 1561.91 +113.0%
Current Price $733.15
Low $361 −50.8%High $3000 +309.2%

9bRecent Opinions by Firm

InstitutionsOpinionPreviousTarget PriceChangevs. Close
RosenblattBuy$1,900$1,900Maintained+159.2%
NeedhamBuy$1,650$1,650Maintained+125.1%
RosenblattBuy$1,900$1,900Maintained+159.2%
DA DavidsonBuy$2,100$3,000Raised+309.2%
MizuhoBuy$1,300$1,400Raised+91.0%

Yahoo Finance: 45 price targets · average $1,561.91 · high $3,000 · low $361 · the 5 latest changes are dated Oct 1–22 (before the Nov 5 plunge)[S4]

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10

Risk Analysis

The largest risks are slowing growth (+30.8% to +13.4% quarter over quarter), possible TSMC entry into memory, and rising capex.

Likelihood and impact rated High·Medium·Low

RiskTypeLikelihoodImpactDates to Watch
Slowing growth (+30.8% to +13.4%)DemandHighMediumDec 23 earnings
Possible TSMC entry into advanced memoryCompetitionHighMediumTSMC comments
Turn in the price cycleProfitabilityHighMediumNext year
Capex growth (about $25B in 1H)FinancesMediumMediumQuarterly results
Reported delay at Taiwan fabBusinessMediumMediumCompany statement
President's sale ($25.7M)Shareholder valueMediumLowForm 4 filings

Likelihood and impact rated High·Medium·Low · When it clears: When this clears: Q4 2026 earnings around Dec 23 (Yahoo estimate) · official comments from TSMC and Micron

11

Checkpoints & Open Questions

The two most important checkpoints are gross margin in the Dec 23 earnings (Yahoo estimate) and official comments from TSMC and Micron

11aCheckpoints

★★★
Q4 2026 earnings around Dec 23Whether revenue lands within $60B–$63B and gross margin tops 86%
Hold
★★★
TSMC and Micron official commentsWhether TSMC's memory plans and Micron's position are stated
Hold
★★★
Taoyuan, Taiwan fabThe company's explanation of the delay reports and whether work resumes
Hold
★★★
Reclaiming the 200-day average ($758.39)Whether a close above it weakens the downtrend
Hold
★★★
Price target changesWhether the $1,561.91 average falls after the Nov 5 plunge
Hold

11bOpen Questions

Q1. Will gross margin hold above 86%?Guidance about 86%; Q3 was 86.8% on Yahoo's basis (S2·S7)
Q2. Will TSMC enter memory?24/7 Wall St. and TIKR headlines conflicted [S7]
Q3. How far will capex rise?$11.1B in the quarter, about $25B flagged for 1H (S2·S7)
Q4. Will price targets fall after the Nov 5 plunge?Average $1,561.91; the 5 latest changes are dated Oct 1–22 [S4]
12

Sources & Data Dates

Numbers without a source are not included.

IDTypeProviderContentAs-of Date
S1FilingSEC 8-K Item 2.02 (Sep 30) filing listConfirms the earnings filing (figures from S2 and S7)2026.09.30
S2FinancialsYahoo FinanceQuarterly and annual financials, share count, estimated EPS, consensus2026.11.09
S3PriceYahoo FinanceDaily closes, volume, moving averages, indicators2026.11.09
S4TargetsYahoo Finance45 analyst price targets, 49 ratings, 5 latest changes2026.11.09
S5OptionsYahoo FinanceCall and put volume, activity by strike, share by expiry2026.11.09
S6PeersYahoo FinanceSNDK·WDC·STX·AMAT·LRCX PER·P/S2026.11.09
S7NewsStockTwits, TIKR, Trefis, Kalkine, 24/7 Wall St., Barron's (headlines and summaries)Q4 2026 guidance ($61.5B ± $1.5B revenue, about 86% gross margin, $38.15 EPS), about $25B first-half capex, Nov 5 selloff coverage, TSMC memory-entry reports2026.11.10
S8InsidersYahoo Finance (Form 4 summary)Executive trades in the last 60 days: one sale by the President (Oct 16)2026.11.09
S9MacroYahoo FinanceUS 10-year yield, WTI, USD/KRW, gold, bitcoin, VIX2026.11.09

Price as of Nov 9, 2026 close · financials Q3 2026 (ended Aug 31)

※ Based on research team debate tally · of 6 issues, Bull 4 (cycle, valuation, targets, cash), Bear 2 (TSMC, price trend), Hold 0; the key issue counts double, so Bull 5 vs Bear 2 → 3-vote gap → BUY

Investment Disclaimer · Card views and reports summarize public data for information only. They do not recommend buying or selling any security and are not investment advice. Investors are responsible for their own decisions and outcomes. AI opinions reflect the issue date and may change.

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