CoreWeaveCoreWeave, Inc. · CRWV
The close of $48.73 is 64.8% below the 52-week high of $138.25, and the debate rules HOLD 4 to 3 as the Q3 beat is offset by debt, target cuts and insider selling.
Revenue grew 168.3% to $3.66B in the September quarter and beat consensus, but borrowings of $46.9B against $4.0B of equity keep the verdict balanced. Full-year revenue guidance was raised to $13.0B–$13.3B, while five price target cuts and net insider selling of $93.7M in 60 days weigh against it. Shares rose about 8% after hours per Stocktwits, not in the close.
Research team debate
Of six issues, Q3 results, backlog and valuation rule Bull while debt, price target cuts and insider selling rule Bear, so the weighted 4-to-3 tally makes the overall call HOLD.
The overall call is HOLD. The Q3 beat and raised guidance narrowed the gap, but borrowings, target cuts and insider selling keep Bear one vote ahead; the call reopens when analysts reprice after the report.
- Bull case — revenue grew 168.3% to $3.66B, backlog is $132.5B and P/S of 2.3x is 80.2% below the peer median of 11.4x.
- Bear case — borrowings of $46.9B are 2.1x market cap, net interest of $846M is about 4x operating income, and five target cuts and $93.7M of insider selling add pressure.
- Gap of one vote — the Bear lead is too small for SELL; post-earnings target revisions and Q4 results decide the next move.
1aDebate by Issue · 6
Contracted demand is large enough to carry the debt. Backlog reached $132.5B, up 27.4% from about $104B at Jun 30, and the CEO expects about $9B of customer prepayments and deposits in the next three months. Operating cash flow was $1.98B in the quarter (company Q3 release, S2).
A backlog does not pay interest today. Borrowings of $46.87B are 119.3% above Dec 31 and 11.6x equity of $4.03B. Net interest expense of $846M was about 4x operating income of $207M, the Q4 interest guide is $1.05B–$1.15B, and the net loss widened to $709M.
Adjusted EBITDA of $2.26B is 2.7x net interest of $846M, so cash earnings still cover the interest bill and operating income turned positive.
Borrowings are 2.1x the $22.36B market cap and interest is about 4x operating income, so the ruling goes to Bear even with the backlog and prepayments.[S2·S1]
The quarter beat and the outlook rose. Revenue of $3.66B topped the $3.54B consensus cited by Barron's by 3.4% and grew 168.3% in a year. Operating income turned positive at $207M, and 2026 revenue guidance rose to $13.0B–$13.3B with adjusted operating income of $1.275B–$1.375B.
The loss line still missed. EPS of −$1.27 was worse than the −$1.21 consensus cited by Barron's, the net loss widened from $626M to $709M, and full-year capex guidance rose to $37B–$39B. A Barron's headline said investors stayed antsy even as the stock edged up.
The issue was whether results met expectations: revenue beat, operating income turned positive and guidance rose, so the ruling goes to Bull.[S2·S8]
Demand is outrunning supply. Backlog rose to $132.5B and contracted power rose by more than 900 MW to over 4.6 GW, while active power grew by more than 200 MW to over 1.7 GW. New customers included Canva, Substack and Wayve, and OpenAI and Jane Street expanded.
Most of the backlog is not live yet. Only about 37% of contracted power is running: active power of 1.7 GW against 4.6 GW contracted means most of the backlog depends on construction, and Q3 capex of $9.44B was 4.8x operating cash flow of $1.98B.
Year-end active power is still guided to more than 1.85 GW and revenue guidance rose, so delivery is on plan for now; the ruling goes to Bull.[S2]
Targets are still high after the cuts. The average of 38 targets, $131.53, is 169.9% above the close and 32 of 42 analysts rate Buy. Four of the five firms that cut kept a Buy-type rating.
Every move was down. Rosenblatt cut $250 → $160 (−36.0%), Wells Fargo $160 → $115 (−28.1%), Morgan Stanley $99 → $70 (−29.3%), Citigroup $159 → $128 (−19.5%) and UBS $120 → $105 (−12.5%) between Oct 23 and Nov 9, and none of these five was a raise. Morgan Stanley's $70 is only 43.6% above the close.
Target changes are judged by direction: five cuts and no raises among the five listed changes in 17 days, and revisions after the Q3 report are not yet in the data, so the ruling goes to Bear for now.[S4]
The sales look routine. CEO Michael Intrator sold exactly 307,692 shares on Sep 15, Sep 22 and Sep 29. Total net selling of $93.7M is 0.42% of market cap, and stock compensation of $478M in nine months is 5.7% of revenue, below 10%.
They sold and nobody bought. Net selling over 60 days was $93.7M: Intrator $78.6M at an average of about $85, CFO Nitin Agrawal $12.2M and officer Jonathan Jones $2.9M. Buys were zero, and the $48.73 close is about 43% below Intrator's average sale price.
Net selling is 0.42% of market cap, above the 0.1% mark, and CEO and CFO both sold with no buying, so the ruling goes to Bear; stock compensation of 5.7% is below the automatic 10% rule.[S6]
It is cheap for the growth. P/S of 2.3x is 80.2% below the peer median of 11.4x and below 5.8x at the end of 2025, while revenue grew 168.3%. P/S divided by revenue growth is 0.01.
Net debt makes it less cheap. Adding net debt of $42.75B to the $22.36B market cap gives an enterprise value of $65.11B, or 6.6x TTM revenue of $9.89B. There is no P/E because of losses, and Oracle, Amazon and Microsoft are profitable.
Even at 6.6x enterprise value to sales, the multiple is about 0.04 of the 168.3% growth rate, and growth supports it, so the ruling goes to Bull.[S1·S7]
1bScenarios
LightView does not issue its own target price. The high, average and low of external target prices are used as price references for scenarios[S4]
High target of $278 · assumes revenue growth continues and funding stays open
Average target of $131.53 · assumes growth continues while losses narrow
Low target of $39 · assumes funding tightens and capex outruns revenue
1cConditions That Change the Verdict
The verdict is based only on the data in this report and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Investment Summary
September-quarter revenue was $3.66B, up 168.3%, with operating income of $207M, and the $48.73 close is 64.8% below the 52-week high of $138.25.
High$138.25
2aKey Data
The Q3 beat, a $132.5B backlog and raised guidance support the story, but borrowings, capex-driven cash burn, target cuts and insider selling still weigh.
2bKey Metrics
Financials are for Q3 2026 (ended Sep 30) from the company's earnings release. Borrowings of $46.87B (recourse $41.60B plus non-recourse $5.27B, excluding leases) less cash of $4.12B give net debt of $42.75B. Yahoo's total debt, which includes operating leases, was $51.61B at Jun 30 and is not directly comparable. Dec 31 borrowings of $21.37B come from the same release; the collector's Dec 31 total debt of $29.82B includes operating leases and is a different basis. The collector's next-earnings estimate (revenue $4.70B, EPS −$0.63) differs from the Barron's Q3 consensus and is not used. Percentages are computed from unrounded figures in millions of dollars, so they can differ slightly from ratios of the rounded numbers shown.
Business & Competitive Advantage
GPU cloud rental and data center capacity are the core, and AI demand creates nearly all of the growth.
3aBusiness Structure
Customers rent compute capacity and pay for it
Capex was $6.42B in the June and $9.44B in the September quarter
Raises the value of the compute it rents
Q3 release lists Wayve and Serve Robotics among new customers
- Growth driver · Quarterly revenue reached $3.66B and active power passed 1.7 GW
- Funding · Borrowings $46.9B plus $4.2B convertible notes and a 35M-share at-the-market program (company Q3 release, S2)
- New customers · Canva, Substack and Wayve joined; OpenAI and Jane Street expanded
- Vision · Scale AI compute while turning growth into profit after interest
3bCompetitive Advantage (Moat) Assessment
Six sources rated Strong·Medium·Weak
Revenue grew 168.3% in a year and operating margin turned positive at 5.7%
Backlog of $132.5B and six new customers named, but customer mix is not analyzed in this report
Cost of revenue was $1.18B on $3.66B revenue (gross margin about 68%, own calculation) and operating income was $207M
Cash of $4.12B covers about half of the $7.47B quarterly free cash burn, though about $9B of prepayments is expected
Gross margin near 68% suggests pricing holds, but competitors Nebius and IREN are expanding
AI investment policy helps demand, while rate levels raise funding cost
Growth and backlog are real, but funding cost and the scale of borrowings limit the cushion
Earnings & Financials
Quarterly revenue grew from $1.36B in Q3 2025 to $3.66B, while borrowings reached $46.87B and quarterly free cash flow was −$7.47B.
4aRevenue & Earnings
| Q3 2025 | Q4 | Q1 2026 | Q2 | Q3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4B | 1.6B | 2.1B | 2.6B | 3.7B |
| Operating Income | 52M | −90M | −144M | −49M | 207M |
| Net Income | −110M | −452M | −740M | −626M | −709M |
| Operating Margin | 3.8% | -5.7% | -6.9% | -1.9% | 5.7% |
Operating margin moved 3.8% → −5.7% → −6.9% → −1.9% → 5.7%, while the net loss was −$0.71B in Q3.
4bCash Flow
| Annual (FY ends December) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1M | 1.8B | 2.7B | 3.1B |
| Capex | 72M | 2.9B | 8.7B | 10.3B |
| Free Cash Flow | −72M | −1.1B | −6B | −7.3B |
4cFinancial Structure
| Item | Now | Dec 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borrowings (9/30) | $46.87B | $21.37B | +119.3% |
| Equity (9/30) | $4.03B | $3.34B | +20.7% |
| Total assets (9/30) | $91.48B | $49.30B | +85.6% |
| Total liabilities (9/30) | $87.46B | $45.97B | +90.3% |
4dProfitability Metrics
| Metric | Q3 | Year ago | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating margin | 5.7% | 3.8% | Operating income ÷ revenue |
| Net margin | −19.4% | −8.1% | Net income ÷ revenue |
| Operating cash flow margin | 54.0% | 123.8% | Operating cash flow ÷ revenue |
| Free cash flow margin | −203.9% | −51.3% | (Operating cash flow − capex) ÷ revenue |
Valuation
P/S of 2.3x is 80.2% below the peer median of 11.4x, but including net debt the enterprise value is 6.6x TTM revenue.
5aP/S trend
Trailing diluted EPS is −$3.65 and next-12-month expected EPS is −$4.77, so TTM and Forward P/E are not meaningful (loss) and P/S is used. Market cap of $22.36B is the close × 458.9M Class A shares (collector), the basis for P/S, enterprise value and the insider-selling share. Yahoo's own market cap of $26.85B and P/S of 3.5x use a larger share count and older trailing revenue; 559M weighted average shares from the company release would give $27.24B and P/S 2.8x. Enterprise value of $65.11B is our own calculation.
The $48.73 close on Nov 10 is 2.3x P/S on trailing four-quarter revenue of $9.89B. Both TTM and Forward P/E are not computable because of losses, so P/S against the peer median of 11.4x is the comparison.
5bPrice Range · 52-Week vs. External Targets
52-week range is intraday (low 11/5 · high 5/6) · External price targets: Yahoo Finance, 38 analysts (Buy 32·Hold 7·Sell 3)[S4]
5cPeer Multiples Comparison
| Company | PER (TTM) | Forward PER | P/S | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoreWeave CRWV | Loss | Loss | 2.3x | About $22.36B |
| Nebius NBIS | Loss | Loss | 26.9x | About $36.43B |
| Oracle ORCL | 18.5x | 12.5x | 5.0x | About $356.8B |
| Amazon AMZN | 21.9x | 24.7x | 3.8x | About $2.93T |
| Microsoft MSFT | 27.8x | 24.8x | 11.4x | About $3.96T |
| IREN IREN | Loss | Loss | 11.6x | About $8.03B |
Nov 10 close · peer median TTM 21.9x, Forward 24.7x, P/S 11.4x (five peers, CoreWeave excluded; loss-makers excluded from P/E) · Yahoo values, CoreWeave P/S is our own calculation[S7] · Peers are five companies in the same currency (USD): AI cloud (NBIS, IREN) and large cloud (ORCL, AMZN, MSFT) with Yahoo Finance values
Chart & Options
The $48.73 close is below the 20-, 60-, 120- and 200-day lines and above the 5-day line at $47.24, with RSI at 35.8.
6aKey Price Levels Above and Below Current Price
Each colored bar matches the same-colored line on the chart; the percentage is the distance from the current price (green above · red below)
6bTechnical Indicators
6cOptions Market
Yahoo options values at collection time · calls are 50.1% of volume · max pain $53 for Nov 13 expiry and $62 for Nov 20
News & Schedule
Shares fell 9.9% on Nov 4 and 9.8% on Nov 5 to a $40.58 low, rebounded 5.6% on Nov 9, then reported Q3 results after the Nov 10 close.
7aNews
11/10 Volume —
11/10 Volume 85.71M shares
11/9 Volume 49.01M shares
11/5 Volume 85.28M shares
11/4 Volume 60.65M shares
9/29 Volume 26.03M shares
9/22 Volume 26.58M shares
7bUpcoming Events
Macro
The US 10-year yield at 4.98% is high for a heavy borrower, while WTI at $86.04 and a VIX of 19.46 have eased.
Wall Street View
The 38-target average of $131.53 is 169.9% above the close, but all five recent changes were cuts and post-earnings revisions are pending.
9aExternal Target Price Range
9bRecent Opinions by Firm
| Institutions | Opinion | Previous | Target Price | Change | vs. Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenblatt | Buy | 250 | 160 | Target cut | +228.3% |
| Wells Fargo | Buy | 160 | 115 | Target cut | +136.0% |
| Citigroup | Buy | 159 | 128 | Target cut | +162.7% |
| UBS | Buy | 120 | 105 | Target cut | +115.5% |
| Morgan Stanley | Hold | 99 | 70 | Target cut | +43.6% |
Yahoo Finance: 38 targets · average $131.53 (high $278, low $39) · 42 ratings: 32 Buy, 7 Hold, 3 Sell · table shows the 5 changes Oct 23–Nov 9 · revisions after the Q3 report are not yet in the data[S4]
Risk Analysis
The two biggest risks are borrowings with rising interest and a net loss far above the operating income.
| Risk | Type | Likelihood | Impact | Dates to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borrowings of $46.9B and Q4 interest of $1.05B–$1.15B | Financial | High | High | Q4 results |
| Net loss ($709M) far above operating income ($207M) | Financial | High | High | Q4 results |
| Capex outruns operating cash flow (Q3 $9.44B vs $1.98B) | Earnings | Medium | High | Q4 results |
| Customer concentration | Earnings | Medium | Medium | Next 10-Q |
| Volatility 64.8% below the 52-week high | Price | High | Medium | Nov 13 and Nov 20 options expiries |
| New equity (35M-share at-the-market program, company Q3 release S2) | Financial | Medium | Medium | Next 10-Q |
Likelihood and impact rated High·Medium·Low · When it clears: When it resolves: analyst reactions to the Q3 report · Nov 13 and Nov 20 options expiries · about $9B of customer prepayments over three months
Checkpoints & Open Questions
The two key checks are analyst reactions to the Q3 report and whether interest widens the net loss.
11aCheckpoints
11bOpen Questions
Sources & Data Dates
Numbers without a source are not published.
| ID | Type | Provider | Content | As-of Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Price and indicators | Yahoo Finance | Close, moving averages, RSI, 52-week range, Supertrend, Bollinger | 2026.11.11 |
| S2 | Financials | Company Q3 2026 earnings release (SEC 8-K Exhibit 99.1) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000461/coreweave3q26earningspress.htm and Yahoo Finance quarterly statements (through Q2 2026) | Q3 revenue, operating income, net loss, cash flow, balance sheet, backlog, power, guidance; earlier quarters from Yahoo | 2026.11.10 |
| S3 | SEC filings | SEC EDGAR 8-K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000461/crwv-20261110.htm | Nov 10 8-K item 2.02 (earnings); Sep 22 8-K items 1.01, 3.02 and 8.01 | 2026.11.10 |
| S4 | Price targets and consensus | Yahoo Finance | Rating mix, targets and the five changes | 2026.11.11 |
| S5 | Options | Yahoo Finance | Put/call ratio, volume by strike, max pain | 2026.11.11 |
| S6 | Insider trades | Yahoo Finance (Form 4 summary) | Sales by Intrator, Agrawal and Jones, Sep 14–Oct 13 | 2026.11.11 |
| S7 | Peer comparison | Yahoo Finance | P/S and P/E for NBIS, ORCL, AMZN, MSFT, IREN | 2026.11.11 |
| S8 | News headlines | Barron's, Stocktwits, Motley Fool, Pulse2 (headlines and summaries only) | Nov 10–11 earnings reaction; Barron's consensus revenue $3.54B and EPS −$1.21; backlog of about $104B at Jun 30 | 2026.11.11 |
Price as of the Nov 10, 2026 close (the last completed close) · financials Q3 2026 (company release) · after-hours moves after the Nov 10 report are not in the close
※ Based on research team debate tally · of six issues, Bull wins 3 (Q3 results, backlog, valuation), Bear wins 3 issues worth 4 votes (debt as the key issue at weight 2, target cuts 1, insider selling 1) and none is on hold → weighted Bull 3 vs Bear 4, a gap of 1 vote, so HOLD