CoreWeaveCoreWeave, Inc. · CRWV
The close of $48.98 is 64.6% below the 52-week high of $138.25, and the debate rules SELL 4 to 2 on debt, price target cuts and insider selling, with Q3 earnings on hold.
Revenue grew 112.5% to $2.58B in the June quarter, but total debt of $51.6B against $5.0B of equity and a $14.1B two-quarter capex bill keep the stock under pressure. Five price target cuts since Oct 23, net insider selling of $93.7M in 60 days, and Q3 results due Nov 11 after the close are what the market is weighing.
Research team debate
Of six issues, revenue growth and valuation rule Bull while debt, price target cuts and insider selling rule Bear, with Q3 earnings on hold, so the weighted 4-to-2 tally makes the overall call SELL.
The overall call is SELL. Revenue growth is real, but debt, target cuts and insider selling outweigh it, and the call reopens after the Nov 11 Q3 results.
- Bull case — revenue grew 112.5% and cash is up 380.4% in a year, while P/S of 3.6x is 69.2% below the peer median of 11.7x.
- Bear case — debt of $51.6B is 1.9x market cap, the net loss of $0.63B is 12.8x the operating loss, and five target cuts and $93.7M of insider selling add pressure.
- Hold — Q3 results after the Nov 11 close are held; revenue of $3.54B or more with a clear funding plan would reopen the call on Nov 12.
1aDebate by Issue · 6
Growth is fast enough to carry the debt. June-quarter revenue was $2.58B, up 112.5%, and cash of $5.54B is 380.4% above a year ago. If revenue keeps this pace, the debt shrinks relative to sales.
Growth was paid for with borrowing. Total debt of $51.61B is 73.1% above Dec 31 and 10.3x equity of $5.02B, and the net loss of $0.63B is 12.8x the $49M operating loss. With $14.1B of capex in two quarters, free cash flow was −$5.74B in the June quarter.
The operating loss narrowed from −$144M to −$49M and operating cash flow was +$0.68B, so the operating line is close to break-even.
The debt is 1.9x the $26.99B market cap (2.3x on the collector's $22.5B) and the operating line is still a loss, so the ruling goes to Bear.[S2·S1]
Demand is already turning into revenue. June-quarter revenue rose 23.9% from the prior quarter to $2.58B, up 112.5% in a year, and consensus expects $3.54B for the September quarter, 159.5% above a year earlier.
Growth costs more than it earns. Capex over the last four quarters was $20.57B against revenue of $7.59B, 2.7x, and TheStreet's Nov 10 headline says banks that funded neoclouds are hesitating, which could slow expansion.
The issue is whether revenue keeps growing, and it is up 112.5% with consensus pointing higher, so the ruling goes to Bull.[S2·S8]
Targets are still high after the cuts. The average of 38 targets, $131.53, is 168.5% above the close and 32 of 42 analysts rate Buy. Four of the five firms that cut kept a Buy-type rating.
Every move was down. Rosenblatt cut $250 → $160 (−36.0%), Wells Fargo $160 → $115 (−28.1%), Morgan Stanley $99 → $70 (−29.3%), Citigroup $159 → $128 (−19.5%) and UBS $120 → $105 (−12.5%) between Oct 23 and Nov 9, with no raises. Morgan Stanley's $70 is only 42.9% above the close.
Target changes are judged by direction: five cuts and no raises in 17 days, so the ruling goes to Bear.[S4]
The sales look routine. CEO Michael Intrator sold exactly 307,692 shares on Sep 15, Sep 22 and Sep 29. Total net selling of $93.7M is 0.35% of market cap, and stock compensation is 8.2% of revenue, below 10%.
They sold and nobody bought. Net selling over 60 days was $93.7M: Intrator $78.6M at an average of about $85, CFO Nitin Agrawal $12.2M and officer Jonathan Jones $2.9M. Buys were zero, and the $48.98 close is about 42% below Intrator's average sale price (about $85).
Net selling is 0.35% of market cap, above the 0.1% mark, and CEO and CFO both sold with no buying, so the ruling goes to Bear; stock compensation of 8.2% is below the automatic 10% rule.[S6]
It is cheap for the growth. P/S of 3.6x is 69.2% below the peer median of 11.7x and below 5.8x at the end of 2025, while revenue grew 112.5%. P/S divided by revenue growth is 0.03.
Net debt makes it less cheap. Adding net debt of $46.07B to the $26.99B market cap gives an enterprise value of $73.06B, or 9.6x TTM revenue of $7.59B. There is no P/E because of losses, and Oracle and Microsoft are profitable.
Even at 9.6x enterprise value to sales, the multiple is about 0.09 of the 112.5% growth rate, and growth supports it, so the ruling goes to Bull.[S1·S7]
The bar is consensus. Revenue is expected at $3.54B, 159.5% above $1.36B a year ago and 37.5% above the June quarter, after two straight quarters of more than 20% sequential growth.
Funding matters more than revenue. Consensus EPS is −$1.21, a loss again, and Barron's Nov 11 headline says financing is in focus. New borrowing or a larger capex plan would add to the $51.6B debt.
The result comes after the Nov 11 close, so the ruling is on hold; revenue of $3.54B or more with a clear funding plan favors Bull, a miss or large new debt favors Bear, and it reopens Nov 12.[S8]
1bScenarios
LightView does not issue its own target price. The high, average and low of external target prices are used as price references for scenarios[S4]
High target of $278 · assumes revenue growth continues and funding stays open
Average target of $131.53 · assumes growth continues while losses narrow
Low target of $39 · assumes funding tightens and capex outruns revenue
1cConditions That Change the Verdict
The verdict is based only on the data in this report and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Investment Summary
June-quarter revenue was $2.58B, up 112.5%, with an operating loss of $49M, and the $48.98 close is 64.6% below the 52-week high of $138.25.
High$138.25
2aKey Data
Fast revenue growth and a larger cash balance support the story, but debt, capex-driven cash burn, target cuts and insider selling dominate before Q3 results.
2bKey Metrics
Financials are for Q2 2026 (ended Jun 30). Total debt of $51.61B less cash and short-term investments of $5.54B gives net debt of $46.07B, and Q3 results due Nov 11 after the close are not included.
Business & Competitive Advantage
GPU cloud rental and data center capacity are the core, and AI demand creates nearly all of the growth.
3aBusiness Structure
Customers rent compute capacity and pay for it
Capex was $7.70B in March and $6.42B in June quarter
Raises the value of the compute it rents
CNCF Platinum membership announced Nov 11; Wayve is a named customer
- Growth driver · Quarterly revenue doubled to $2.58B and Q3 consensus is $3.54B
- Funding · Debt reached $51.6B and capex over four quarters was $20.57B
- New customers · Zacks (Nov 10) linked a 6% rally to a Wayve deal for physical AI
- Vision · Scale AI compute while turning growth into profit after interest
3bCompetitive Advantage (Moat) Assessment
Six sources rated Strong·Medium·Weak
Revenue grew 112.5% in a year, but operating margin is still −1.9%
Revenue doubled in a year, but customer mix is not analyzed in this report
Gross profit was $1.70B on $2.58B revenue, but the operating line is still a $49M loss
Cash of $5.54B covers about one month of $5.74B quarterly free cash burn
Gross margin near 66% suggests pricing holds, but competitors Nebius and IREN are expanding
AI investment policy helps demand, while rate levels raise funding cost
Fast growth is real, but funding cost and the scale of debt limit the cushion
Earnings & Financials
Quarterly revenue grew from $1.21B in Q2 2025 to $2.58B, while total debt reached $51.61B and quarterly free cash flow was −$5.74B.
4aRevenue & Earnings
| Q2 2025 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 2026 | Q2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.6B | 2.1B | 2.6B |
| Operating Income | 19M | 52M | −90M | −144M | −49M |
| Net Income | −290M | −110M | −452M | −740M | −626M |
| Operating Margin | 1.6% | 3.8% | -5.7% | -6.9% | -1.9% |
Operating margin moved 1.6% → 3.8% → −5.7% → −6.9% → −1.9%, while the net loss was −$0.63B in Q2.
4bCash Flow
| Annual (FY ends December) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1M | 1.8B | 2.7B | 3.1B |
| Capex | 72M | 2.9B | 8.7B | 10.3B |
| Free Cash Flow | −72M | −1.1B | −6B | −7.3B |
4cFinancial Structure
| Item | Now | Jun 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments (6/30) | $5.54B | $1.15B | +380.4% |
| Total debt (6/30) | $51.61B | $14.56B | +254.4% |
| Equity (6/30) | $5.02B | $3.82B | +31.5% |
| Shares outstanding (6/30) | 551M | 488M | +12.9% |
4dProfitability Metrics
| Metric | Q2 | Year ago | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating margin | −1.9% | 1.6% | Operating income ÷ revenue |
| Net margin | −24.3% | −23.9% | Net income ÷ revenue |
| Operating cash flow margin | 26.4% | −20.7% | Operating cash flow ÷ revenue |
| Free cash flow margin | −223.0% | −223.1% | (Operating cash flow − capex) ÷ revenue |
Valuation
P/S of 3.6x is 69.2% below the peer median of 11.7x, but including net debt the enterprise value is 9.6x TTM revenue.
5aP/S trend
Trailing diluted EPS is −$3.65 and next-12-month expected EPS is −$4.77, so P/E is not meaningful and P/S is used. Market cap of $26.99B uses 551M total shares (Yahoo balance sheet, Jun 30, S2), consistent with Yahoo's own market cap of $26.5B and P/S of 3.6x. The collector's 459M shares (Class A only) would give $22.5B, P/S 3.0x, debt 2.3x market cap, enterprise value 9.0x revenue and insider selling 0.42%. Enterprise value of $73.06B is our own calculation.
The $48.98 close on Nov 9 is 3.6x P/S on trailing four-quarter revenue of $7.59B. Both TTM and Forward P/E are not computable because of losses, so P/S against the peer median of 11.7x is the comparison.
5bPrice Range · 52-Week vs. External Targets
52-week range is intraday (low 11/5 · high 5/6) · External price targets: Yahoo Finance, 38 analysts (Buy 32·Hold 7·Sell 3)[S4]
5cPeer Multiples Comparison
| Company | PER (TTM) | Forward PER | P/S | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoreWeave CRWV | Loss | Loss | 3.6x | About $26.99B |
| Nebius NBIS | Loss | Loss | 28.4x | About $38.45B |
| Applied Digital APLD | Loss | Loss | 5.8x | About $4.97B |
| IREN IREN | Loss | Loss | 12.5x | About $8.71B |
| Oracle ORCL | 18.8x | 12.7x | 5.0x | About $362.2B |
| Microsoft MSFT | 28.5x | 25.3x | 11.7x | About $4.05T |
Nov 9 close · peer median TTM 23.6x, Forward 19.0x, P/S 11.7x (five peers, CoreWeave excluded; loss-makers excluded from P/E) · Yahoo values[S7] · Peers are five companies in the same currency (USD): AI cloud (NBIS, APLD, IREN) and large cloud (ORCL, MSFT) with Yahoo Finance values
Chart & Options
The $48.98 close is below the 20-, 60-, 120- and 200-day lines and above the 5-day line at $48.24, with RSI at 36.0.
6aKey Price Levels Above and Below Current Price
Each colored bar matches the same-colored line on the chart; the percentage is the distance from the current price (green above · red below)
6bTechnical Indicators
6cOptions Market
Yahoo options values at collection time · calls are 49.9% of volume · max pain $53 for Nov 13 expiry and $62 for Nov 20
News & Schedule
Shares fell 9.9% on Nov 4 and 9.8% on Nov 5 to a $40.58 low, then rebounded 6.3% on Nov 6 and 5.6% on Nov 9.
7aNews
11/4 Volume 60.65M shares
11/5 Volume 85.28M shares
11/9 Volume 49.01M shares
11/10 Volume —
11/10 Volume —
9/29 Volume 26.03M shares
9/22 Volume 26.58M shares
7bUpcoming Events
Macro
The US 10-year yield at 4.86% is still high for a heavy borrower, while WTI at $86.85 and a VIX of 19.92 have eased.
Wall Street View
The 38-target average of $131.53 is 168.5% above the close, but all five recent changes were cuts.
9aExternal Target Price Range
9bRecent Opinions by Firm
| Institutions | Opinion | Previous | Target Price | Change | vs. Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenblatt | Buy | 250 | 160 | Target cut | +226.7% |
| Wells Fargo | Buy | 160 | 115 | Target cut | +134.8% |
| Citigroup | Buy | 159 | 128 | Target cut | +161.3% |
| UBS | Buy | 120 | 105 | Target cut | +114.4% |
| Morgan Stanley | Hold | 99 | 70 | Target cut | +42.9% |
Yahoo Finance: 38 targets · average $131.53 (high $278, low $39) · 42 ratings: 32 Buy, 7 Hold, 3 Sell · table shows the 5 changes Oct 23–Nov 9[S4]
Risk Analysis
The two biggest risks are tighter funding as banks hesitate and a net loss far above the operating loss.
| Risk | Type | Likelihood | Impact | Dates to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funding tightens as banks hesitate | Financial | High | High | Nov 11 Q3 call |
| Net loss far above the operating loss | Financial | High | High | Q3 results |
| Capex outruns revenue (4-quarter capex $20.57B vs revenue $7.59B) | Earnings | Medium | High | Q3 results |
| Customer concentration | Earnings | Medium | Medium | Next 10-Q |
| Volatility 64.6% below the 52-week high | Price | High | Medium | Nov 13 and Nov 20 options expiries |
| Share count up 12.9% in a year | Financial | Medium | Medium | Next 10-Q |
Likelihood and impact rated High·Medium·Low · When it clears: When it resolves: Q3 earnings after the close on Nov 11 · Nov 13 and Nov 20 options expiries · funding and capex plans in the Q3 call
Checkpoints & Open Questions
The two key checks are the Nov 11 Q3 results and whether the net loss shrinks against the operating result.
11aCheckpoints
11bOpen Questions
Sources & Data Dates
Numbers without a source are not published.
| ID | Type | Provider | Content | As-of Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Price and indicators | Yahoo Finance | Close, moving averages, RSI, 52-week range, Supertrend, Bollinger | 2026.11.11 |
| S2 | Financials | Yahoo Finance quarterly and annual statements (through Q2 2026) | Quarterly revenue, earnings, cash flow, balance sheet, shares | 2026.11.11 |
| S3 | SEC filings | SEC EDGAR 8-K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000432/crwv-20260917.htm | Sep 22 8-K items 1.01, 3.02 and 8.01; Sep 17 424B5 | 2026.09.22 |
| S4 | Price targets and consensus | Yahoo Finance | Rating mix, targets and the five changes | 2026.11.11 |
| S5 | Options | Yahoo Finance | Put/call ratio, volume by strike, max pain | 2026.11.11 |
| S6 | Insider trades | Yahoo Finance (Form 4 summary) | Sales by Intrator, Agrawal and Jones, Sep 14–Oct 13 | 2026.11.11 |
| S7 | Peer comparison | Yahoo Finance | P/S and P/E for NBIS, APLD, IREN, ORCL, MSFT | 2026.11.11 |
| S8 | News headlines | Barron's, TheStreet, WSJ, Zacks, Stocktwits, Motley Fool (headlines only) | Nov 10–11 financing focus, Wayve, earnings timing | 2026.11.11 |
Price as of the Nov 9, 2026 close (the last completed close) · financials Q2 2026 (Yahoo Finance) · Yahoo lists Q3 earnings on Nov 10 while Nov 11 headlines say it reports that day
※ Based on research team debate tally · of six issues, Bull wins 2 (revenue growth, valuation), Bear wins 3 issues worth 4 votes (debt as the key issue at weight 2, target cuts 1, insider selling 1) and 1 is on hold (Q3 earnings, 0 votes) → weighted Bull 2 vs Bear 4, a gap of 2 votes, so SELL